WP2: Future availability and use for oil, gas and key minerals
The aim of Work Package 2 is to carry out a critical assessment of various market variables influencing supply and demand, develop supply and demand scenarios for these resources and possible supply risks, in order to refine and calibrate the theoretical models and in order to assist in the identification of sources of possible future tension and conflict.
Work Package 2 has assessed the future availability and demands for energy and other selected minerals to provide the basis for evaluation of potential future sources of tension and conflict. Technical and economic data for critical resources were analysed for key factors determining recent and future supply and demand, and to develop scenarios for the future. Current and recent practices and strategies of key actors were examined to understand, refine and calibrate theoretical models developed. In parallel criteria such as import dependence, the geographical concentration of the production and the political stability in raw material producing countries has been studied. Subsequently examples for market changing factors are discussed. This includes topics like unconventional oil, LNG transport, exploration expenditures, the role of emerging technologies and scenarios on future raw material demand until 2040.
The outcomes of Work Package 2 are reported in Deliverable D02.1 - "Identification of potential sources of competition, tension and conflict and potential technological solutions". The individual papers from this deliverable are listed below and can be downloaded in pdf format by selecting the paper title.
Disclaimer: These are academic works of individuals within the project and so do not necessarily represent the views of all the partners in the POLINARES project.
Part I Global Markets: Europe’s import dependence on global commodity markets
- 2. European dependence on and concentration tendencies of the material production - Henrike Sievers and Luis A. Tercero Espinoza (11 pages; 1270 KB)
- 3. Mining investment trends and implications for minerals availability - David Humphreys (16 pages; 539 KB)
- 4. Mining industry corporate actors analysis - Magnus Ericsson (10 pages; 775 KB)
- 5. Geological Availability - Henrike Sievers (4 pages; 463 KB)
- 6. By-product Elements and Coupled Elements - Maren Liedtke and Doris Homberg-Heumann (7 pages; 379 KB)
- 7. Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining (ASM) - Ulrike Dorner, Gudrun Franken, Maren Liedtke and Henrike Sievers (8 pages; 795 KB)
- 8. The contribution of recycling to the supply of metals and minerals - Luis A. Tercero Espinoza (9 pages; 840 KB)
- 9. Phosphate and potash as examples for non-metallic raw material markets - Magnus Ericsson and Susanne Gylesjö (10 pages; 529 KB)
- 10. Secondary phosphate - Christian Sartorius (6 pages; 548 KB)
Part II Changing Markets: Examples for aspects changing the global raw material markets
- 11. Unconventional Oil - Georg Babies and Jürgen Messner (9 pages; 710 KB)
- 12. Transport of Natural Gas - Jürgen Messner and Georg Babies (4 pages; 384 KB)
- 13. Mineral exploration expenditures - Magnus Ericsson (6 pages; 328 KB)
- 14. Chinese investments in Africa’s resource sector - Magnus Ericsson (8 pages; 427 KB)
- 15. The role of emerging technologies in rapidly changing demand for mineral raw materials - Luis A. Tercero Espinoza (8 pages; 616 KB)
- 16. Case study: Tantalum in the world economy: History, uses and demand - Luis A. Tercero Espinoza (9 pages; 665 KB)
- 17. Mining technology – trends and development - Magnus Ericsson (8 pages; 321 KB)
- 18. Future availability and demand for oil gas and key minerals - Kimon Keramidas, Alban Kitous and Bradford Griffin (58 pages; 3391 KB)
Part III Criticality of raw materials
- 19. Critical minerals for the EU - Henrike Sievers, Bram Buijs and Luis A. Tercero Espinoza (19 pages; 976 KB)
- 20. Potential supply risks - focus on specific raw materials - Maren Liedtke and Henrike Sievers (8 pages; 295 KB)
- Critical Thinking about Critical Minerals: Assessing risks related to resource security - Bram Buijs and Henrike Sievers (21 pages; 1047 KB)
- Resource Security Risks in Perspective - Complexity and Nuance - Bram Buijs and Henrike Sievers (49 pages; 954 KB)
Annex II Fact Sheets