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Deliverable D02.1


WP2: Future availability and use for oil, gas and key minerals

The aim of Work Package 2 is to carry out a critical assessment of various market variables influencing supply and demand, develop supply and demand scenarios for these resources and possible supply risks, in order to refine and calibrate the theoretical models and in order to assist in the identification of sources of possible future tension and conflict.

Work Package 2 has assessed the future availability and demands for energy and other selected minerals to provide the basis for evaluation of potential future sources of tension and conflict. Technical and economic data for critical resources were analysed for key factors determining recent and future supply and demand, and to develop scenarios for the future. Current and recent practices and strategies of key actors were examined to understand, refine and calibrate theoretical models developed. In parallel criteria such as import dependence, the geographical concentration of the production and the political stability in raw material producing countries has been studied. Subsequently examples for market changing factors are discussed. This includes topics like unconventional oil, LNG transport, exploration expenditures, the role of emerging technologies and scenarios on future raw material demand until 2040.

The outcomes of Work Package 2 are reported in Deliverable D02.1 - "Identification of potential sources of competition, tension and conflict and potential technological solutions". The individual papers from this deliverable are listed below and can be downloaded in pdf format by selecting the paper title.

Disclaimer: These are academic works of individuals within the project and so do not necessarily represent the views of all the partners in the POLINARES project.


1. Introduction - Henrike Sievers ( 4 pages; 316 KB)


Part I Global Markets: Europe’s import dependence on global commodity markets

Part II Changing Markets: Examples for aspects changing the global raw material markets

Part III Criticality of raw materials

Annex I

Annex II Fact Sheets

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