WP1: Framework for the sources of conflict and tension

The issue of increased competition and conflict over access to oil, gas and minerals has risen up the political agenda throughout the 2000s as prices have risen, emerging countries such as China and India have become major new players in international energy and mineral markets, and multiple post-Cold War civil wars have appeared to be linked to the extraction and looting of fossil fuels and minerals. The threat of conflict and instability has added urgency to the search for collaborative and cooperative solutions to ensure secure and equitable access to these vital natural resources, which are critical for future global prosperity and security.

Work package 1 has the ambitious task to provide an analytical and theoretical framework which explains the sources of conflict, collaboration and competition over access to oil, gas and minerals. It develops this framework through a close and detailed analysis of the historical evolution of the politics and economics of oil, gas and minerals from the nineteenth century onwards.

The outcomes of Work package 1 are reported in Deliverable D01.1 - "an historical and theoretical analysis which identifies the key variables and different combinations of theories which act or may be applied to explain collaboration, competition and conflict with respect to access to oil, gas and minerals". The individual papers from this deliverable are listed below and can be downloaded in pdf format by selecting the paper title.

Disclaimer: These are academic works of individuals within the project and so do not necessarily represent the views of all the partners in the POLINARES project.

Overview:

• Understanding Conflict, Collaboration and Competition over Access to Oil, Gas and Minerals: An Overview and Summary - Roland Dannreuther (12 pages; 568 KB)

Part I Analytical Framework

• 1. The Analytical Framework - Roland Dannreuther (12 pages; 493 KB)

Part II History of Oil, Minerals and Gas

• 2. The History of Oil - Paul Stevens (21 pages; 503 KB)
• 3. Minerals: industry history and fault lines of conflict - David Humphreys (28 pages; 538 KB)
• 4. The History of Gas - Paul Stevens (21 pages; 790KB)

Part III Peak Debates

• 5. Peak Oil: Myth or “Impending Doom”? - Patrick Criqui and Sylvain Rossiaud (22 pages; 1211 KB)
• 6. Mineral Depletion and Peak Production - Magnus Ericsson and Patrik Söderholm (10 pages; 545 KB)

Part IV Theories 1: International Relations and Comparative Politics

• 7. International Relations Theories: Energy, Minerals and Conflict - Roland Dannreuther (25 pages; 690 KB)
• 8. Comparative Politics of Energy and Minerals: Concepts, Debates and Gaps - Wojciech Ostrowski (29 pages; 814 KB)

Part V Theories 2: Economy

• 9. From Export Dependency to Dynamic Comparative Advantages - Armando Rungi (27 pages; 417 KB)
• 10. Competition and Cooperation of Economic Agents in Natural Resource Markets: A Dynamic Market Theory Perspective - Tim Boon von Ochssée, Coby van der Linde, Jochem Meijknecht, and Tom Smeenk (26 pages; 459 KB)
• 11. Institutional Economics - Sylvain Rossiaud and Catherine Locatelli (25 pages; 342 KB)