WP1 Framework for the sources of conflict and tension

The overall aim of Work Package 1 is to provide an explanatory framework, derived from historical andtheoretical analysis, for the development of scenarios which identify future trends in collaboration and competition, and which assist in structuring approaches to achieve a more appropriate balance between competition and collaboration. It is divided in the following tasks:

• Identifying the key independent variables from an historical analysis: To review past historical experiences of cooperation and conflict with respect to oil, gas and minerals in order to see what patterns and structures can be identified so as to contribute to a more comprehensiveunderstanding of the conditions and determinants of natural resource cooperation and conflict. The focus will be on the types of conflict identified in the proposal.
• Identify and/or establish appropriate theoretical explanations for competition, conflict and tension relating to oil, gas and minerals: To provide an assessment of how differing theories from international relations and economics help us to conceptualise and theorise about the key factors which structure and determine the degree of international conflict and cooperation, with a focus on the types of conflict identified in the proposal.

WP2 Future availability & use for oil, gas and key minerals

The aim of Work Package 2 is to carry out a critical assessment of various market variables influencing supply and demand, develop supply and demand scenarios for these resources and possible supply risks, in order to refine and calibrate the theoretical models and in order to assist in the identification of sources of possible future tension and conflict. The following are the main tasks:

• Define critical raw materials to the EU: Assessment of critical energy and mineral raw materials, with special emphasis on the EU: The relevant raw materials will be selected based on criteria such as import value, import dependence, the degree of possible substitution, the recycling potential, and a foresight of new future technologies demanding a certain set of raw materials.
• Provide and analyse data for global supply and demand: The global situation for the critical raw materials will be analysed in detail, including regional aspects of resources and reserves, of production, of consumption and of commodity market trends. A large number of supply risk and demand factors will be analysed.
• Develop scenarios for future supply and demand: The modelling capacity on the World energy model POLES (ENERDATA) with detailed regional coverage on a yearly basis up to 2040 will be applied in close coordination with quantitative assessment of future prospects for raw materials related to the non-energy sectors. Future scenarios will allow describing the impact of key drivers on future demand and production of materials and energy, and therefore provide quantitative information on the stress for critical materials supply at the EU or world scale.

WP3 Implications of past & current practices and strategies

The overall objective of this work package is to assess the implications from WP 1 and WP 2 for current and future tension and conflict with respect to oil, gas and minerals. The specific aims are:

• To examine the current and recent practices and strategies of key actors (public and private) for their use of, demand for, access to, supply and husbanding of these resources, in order to understand, refine and calibrate the theoretical models.
• To identify and assess the major future risks for tension and conflict relating to oil, gas and minerals, through integration of the assessments of future supply and demand with the understanding of the behaviour of actors and the interactions and interdependencies between them.

WP4 Framework for evaluation of future approaches

The overall objective of Work Package 4 is to develop a framework for formulating future policy approachesto address the challenges and risks identified the research of by Work Packages 1, 2 and 3. The specific aims of Work Package 4 will be:

• To establish a set of criteria for evaluating past, current and possible future approaches and solutions, including efficiency, justice, fairness, equity across generations and long-term political stability.
• To understand how markets, competition, technology, international regulation, diplomacy, governance, military and other approaches have been and can be used to address the identified risks and challenges relating to access to oil, gas and minerals, drawing where appropriate on experience in other natural resource sectors.

The results of Work Package 4 will provide the basis of the policy approaches to be formulated in Work Package 5.

WP5 Policy solutions and evaluation of future approaches

The overall aim of the Work Package is to identify and evaluate a number of policy approaches for the future, and to suggest ways in which the EU can promote these approaches. Two main aims:

• To establish a set of policy approaches and options which will address the main anticipated sources tension and conflict relating to oil, gas and minerals, and which have the potential to create a more appropriate balance between competition and collaboration.
• To identify the roles which the EU can play in promoting such policy approaches and options.

WP6 Dissemination

The first aim of this WP is to validate and discuss the methodology and the intermediate results with relevant stakeholders, especially in order to guarantee the consistency of the final recommendations. The second is to communicate the results by means of a broad range of dissemination methods. The consortium has been structured to have partners with strong links with different stakeholder’s communities such as academics, governments, international organizations, industry organizations and their members. An additional task of this WP is to invite a group of non European experts, which will have a formal implication in the project.

Disclaimer: the description of the content of the different Work Packages will be periodically updated during the project.